Extrapolating Trade Values for 2 for 1 and Larger Trades

by peakedinhighskoolon Posted on

Many of you have checked out my preseason and in-season trade values, but a key metric that I have not spent much time on to-date is how to apply them to more “lopsided” trades. When I say lopsided, I mean trading multiple players for one single player (Stud) or a couple of depth type pieces for stronger players at their position. A key assumption of the Trade Value chart is that it is designed for 1 for1 positional swaps, but a majority of trades involve more than two NFL players. So, what do you do in those instances?

Typically, I tell people that you have to overpay for stud players or any time you are trading more players for fewer, i.e. consolidating depth. The value you get to add off the waiver wire and get to add to your starting lineup drives that overpayment rate. But how much do you need to overpay? My advice is usually 1.2-1.3x  depending on value. But I have a better tool now to help. Below you will find a chart that helps to determine how much you should look to pay ( Y-axis) for players of higher value (x-axis).

Let’s take a look at the chart!

What you see is a line that runs at a 45% angle (1:1 value ratio) until it hits a trade value of about x=45. I call that the “stud point” where players start to require an overpay. From there the function starts to increase exponentially until we get off of the chart. There are separate lines for 2 for 1, 3 for 1, and 3 for 2 trades. These functions are based on past data and historical trends. The diagonal lines running from the y to x axis denote the 1 for 1 points in the chart and they can be used to gage how far off the actual offer value needs to be for a “fair” trade.

To use the chart:

  1. Determine the value of the player or players on the smaller side of the trade ( 1 for 2 or 2 for 3) and find their spot on the x-axis
  2. Trace up to the function that relates to the trade (1 for 1, 2 for 1, 3 for 1, of 3 for 2)
  3. Trace over to the y-axis to determine approximate value of the trade
  4. Make an offer that will be rejected
  5. Cry
  6. Drink
  7. Try again
  8. They Accept
  9. Instantly become suspicious
  10. Drink

Here is an example:

2 for 1 Trade

1 side- Christian McCaffrey- Trade Value of 79 in 1 PPR, 1 QB based on this post

Results in an estimated trade demand of 102

So a combination of something like Hopkins and Chubb would be reasonable to get the job done

Any questions?

-PeakedInHighSkool

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