Last week I posted some of my latest work looking at the relationship between unbalanced trades (2 for 1, 3 for 1, 3 for 2) and the need to overpay or apply a multiplier when using trade value charts. You can find last week’s work here or here. You should definitely review what I went over last week before reading this post. This week I am going to go through some trades that were posted on pollsports.com which is run by /u/j_smooth and apply dynasty trade values from Fantasypros to check the relationships I posted last week.
I believe it is generally accepted that when you are paying for stud players with inferior players you have to overpay to get the job done. But the question is, is by how much do you have to overpay? My advice has always been that the overpay rate is a function of the stud value. I am specifically talking about 2 for 1 trades. I usually assume a sliding scale starting at a 1.3 overpay rate for the tippy top that gradually drops to 1.0 for lower players or non-studs. For example, CMC is the highest-rated player at 83, and to trade for him I would assume you would need to pay 1.3 x 83 in total 2 value, so a value of 108, so something like Cam Akers + DJ Moore. There is obviously, more context and nuance behind trades, but I am trying to apply some guidelines. I went through a non-dynasty example last week as well. This week I decided to parse through some of /u/j_smooth’s data to see what his users thought were fair value. To do this I looked specifically at Dynasty, 1-QB polls where the votes were approximately equivalent. I then feed the FP dynasty trade values into my spreadsheet, used index matching, and summed the values on each side of the trade. The results can be found on this graph below:
Looking at the data, we see a pretty reasonable agreement between the crowd-sourced data and the guidelines I proposed (based on a different data set) last week. That’s great! There is some scatter around the 2 for 1 line, especially at the lower end of the scale.
What are some 2 for 1, 3 for 1, or 3 for 2 trades have y’all accomplished this offseason and what does the value look like on either side?
If you want to learn more about my methods, you can do it here: My methods
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