Hey there! I was able to publish the output of my model at the end of last year, but never got the chance to jump into how I created them. Several years ago I created my redraft model and have gone into depth on how it works, but the dynasty one is a little different and more complex. There are many more sources of good redraft data, so honestly, the redraft model was a lot easier to create and calibrate.
The backbone of my model is seeded expert consensus ranks from as many sources as I can find. I average player values and feed these into the model. I assign rank-based trade values based on historic values as a function of positional scarcity. Running backs are the backbone of the model and then WRs, TEs, and QB values are determined based on a function of nearby RB values. Picks are a lot more complex. So I manually go through crowdsource data like KTC and Pollsports (shout out u/J_smooth for giving me access to the data) and create a high and low value for groups of picks. I actually will write the picks in terms of nearby players to get an idea of the value. I expect I will be able to break out the picks more as we get past the NFL draft and know the landing spots of the top prospects.
I create tiers based on aggregated data and natural-looking breaks in groups. They are more of soft tiers, but that is how I like to look at them.
These charts are more of a meta-tool and not really related to any single analyst or person’s ranks. So, I recommend looking for players who you are higher or lower on and trying to make moves based on perceived value differences.
I will publish updated Dynasty Trade Values Later today!
